Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation climate change are main hazards this species. Therefore, it vital describe possible changes in distribution patterns under current future climatic conditions, they important for their monitoring, conservation, use. In study, we predict, very first time, potential of based on data that reflect total species, edaphic variables, consensus model combines results three statistical techniques. The obtained was projected conditions considering two general circulation models (GCM), shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 SSP585) 2070. Predictions indicated wide adequate areas Central American countries such Mexico demonstrated coverage up 28.5% within limits protected areas. Under scenarios, drastic reductions were observed different regions, particularly Venezuela, Perú, Ecuador, losses 56.0%. On other hand, an increase suitable also detected. study certainly useful identifying currently unrecorded populations Mahogany, well locations likely be both now conservation management planning. methodology proposed work able used forest tropical zones tool conducting dynamic restoration strategies consider effects change.